2011 Census  

Background

In terms of scale, the Census of Population and Housing is the largest and most complex statistical exercise undertaken in Northern Ireland , traditionally every ten years. It is conducted under statute through the provisions of the Census Act (Northern Ireland) 1969.  This places the responsibility for planning, conducting and reporting the Census with the Registrar General for Northern Ireland (an official within NISRA) and requires the laying and approval of a Census Order and Census Regulations.  

Planning and development work is being taken forward on the basis that the next Census in Northern Ireland will be conducted in 2011.  This accords with developments throughout the rest of the UK.  Proposals for the next Census will be set out in a White Paper in 2008.   

The Registrars General of Northern Ireland, England and Wales, and Scotland have agreed (subject to the need for approval where appropriate by the relevant legislatures) the intention to conduct censuses simultaneously throughout the UK in 2011. The aim is to promote UK harmonisation and to produce consistent and coherent outputs for the UK and for each component country. A paper on Output Aims and a policy statement on Statistical Disclosure Control are now available as annexes to the agreement. A number of UK-wide Committees have been set up to consider different areas of census development where common methodologies and approaches can be adopted.  

Further details on the Registrars General Agreement can be found Here.

Some background information on the potential design of the 2011 Census can be found in An Assessment of the Enumeration Options for the 2011 Census in Northern Ireland.  Please also see the Future Provision of Demographic Statistics in Northern Ireland (Towards the 2011 Census) Information Paper.

Role of the Census

The Census plays a fundamental role in the provision of comprehensive and robust demographic statistics which, uniquely, are comparable and consistent at the small area level and for small population groups. The information from the Census is used extensively across the public, private and voluntary sectors and has many important applications.  These include, for example:  

Acting as a benchmark for demographic statistics by providing the base count of the population;

Informing the efficient allocation of significant resources across all parts of Government, spanning housing, education, health care, social welfare and transport;

Providing an authoritative base for population and housing projections which are pivotal to planning and decision making in respect of front line service provision throughout the inter-censal period;

Supporting development, targeting, delivery and evaluation work in key policy areas and equality monitoring through the provision of information detailing the demographic characteristics of geographical areas and population groups;

Identifying and targeting areas of need and disadvantage;

Benchmarking and improving the quality of information collected from other data sources such as administrative systems, address registers and sample surveys;

Providing information on small population subgroups, such as ethnic minority populations, for which sample surveys cannot provide robust statistics; and

Informing and supporting research.

The Need for Planning

The Census is an extremely large-scale and logistically complex exercise, which requires significant funding on the part of Government.  The information that it provides has many important applications as outlined above and, as such, failure to deliver would have considerable implications, carry heavy costs and serve to severely undermine both user and public confidence. To mitigate the risks that arise in such an exercise, detailed planning is required to ensure that any agreed strategic aims and objectives are met and that the necessary investment is fully realised through the provision of official statistics that are fit for purpose.

The ‘one-off’ nature of the census, which arises as a consequence of the ten-yearly cycle, adds to the complexities and challenges that would naturally go hand-in-hand with an exercise on the scale of the census. Problems need to be anticipated and appropriate contingencies developed in order to ensure that operations run smoothly, even in the event of a crisis (e.g. the Foot and Mouth outbreak during the 2001 Census operations). In addition, new questions and questionnaire designs need to be tested alongside new methodologies and business systems aimed at enhancing efficiencies in order to determine both the likely public reaction and the potential impact on the overall operation (e.g. response rates).

High Level and Strategic Aims

The strategy being developed for the 2011 Census in Northern Ireland seeks to take account of the important lessons learnt from the review and evaluation of key processes that underpinned the 2001 Census and take cognisance of the development work that is ongoing in the rest of the UK and further afield. In addition, it seeks to exploit both the significant efficiencies and wealth of experience that can be secured through joint working at the UK level where it is appropriate and in Northern Ireland’s best interest to do so.  

The following high-level strategic aims have been agreed and currently underpin the development of the 2011 Census strategy in Northern Ireland.

To provide high quality, value for money statistics that are fit for purpose and meet the needs of users;

To maximise response rates by actively encouraging public participation in the Census and raising awareness of its important role;

To protect, and be seen to protect, the confidential personal information collected through the Census; and

To secure public and user confidences in the final results and deliver them in a timely manner.

Development Work

Three major phases of testing are planned as part of the 2011 Census development cycle, namely a Census test which took place on 13 May 2007, systems integration test in autumn 2008 and a dress rehearsal in spring 2009.  Similar arrangements are in place across the rest of the UK.  

Work within Census Office is currently focused in three main areas, namely:

(i)   The implementation of a UK wide Procurement Strategy;

(ii)  User consultation; and

(iii) Evaluation of the 2007 Census test.  

Procurement

For reasons of efficiency, systems and services for the 2011 Census are being procured on a UK wide basis as in 2001. The first contract, covering the provision of systems and services for the 2007 Census Test (e.g. printing, data capture, contact centre), was awarded in October 2006 to two companies.  

The ongoing procurement work will lead to the award of a contract to a single supplier to develop and deliver the systems and services required for 2011.  

User Consultation

NISRA held a formal consultation exercise on demographic statistics and the content of the 2011 Census in the first half of 2005.  This was followed up by a series of three information days held in Limavady, Belfast and Enniskillen in March 2006.  The information gathered through these events contributed to the development of the content for the 2007 Census Test form.  The next phase of consultation work will seek to ascertain the priorities for the 2011 Census questionnaire and will inform the development of the White Paper planned for 2008.  

A programme of small scale testing will be conducted with the specific aim of developing and trialling the question set for inclusion in the 2011 Census questionnaire along with the actual design and layout of the questionnaire itself. The detail of this work, which will be informed by ongoing user consultation, will include major components such as piloting questions in the Northern Ireland Omnibus Survey conducted by NISRA’s Central Survey Unit and a qualitative follow-up survey following the operational test in 2007.  

Further details on the consultation work undertaken to date can be found Here.

2007 Census Test

A major test of Census processes took place on 13 May 2007. It was conducted in five areas of Northern Ireland, covering approximately 14,000 households. The Test examined the feasibility of using the postal service to deliver Census forms and the impact of including an income question on the form.  The Test was also used to develop Census processes including the use of the Pointer address register and working with external contractors as described above under procurement.

Further details on the 2007 Census Test can be found Here.